Global temperatures in 2026 set to match record highs
Analysis indicates that 2026 is virtually certain to become the warmest or second-warmest year on record.
FTMQ Climate, written by our newsroom0 views
Analysis by Carbon Brief indicates that 2026 is virtually certain to end as the warmest or second-warmest year on record. With three quarters of the year complete, global surface temperature monitoring shows unprecedented warmth driven by systemic climate drivers. [1]
Carbon Brief reported that 2026 has a 67 percent chance of surpassing 2024 as the hottest year recorded across an average of six global temperature datasets. The current year is projected to tie with or exceed 2024 levels. [1]
A rapidly strengthening El Nino phase and human-caused global warming drove August 2026 to be the warmest August on record. September 2026 was recorded as the second-warmest September. [1]
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that releases oceanic heat into the atmosphere. This natural phenomenon temporarily elevates global average surface temperatures alongside long-term warming trends. [1]
In short
- Carbon Brief gives 2026 a 67 percent chance of becoming the warmest year on record.
- The year 2026 is virtually certain to be the warmest or second-warmest year recorded.
- August 2026 was the warmest August on record, while September was the second-warmest.
- A strengthening El Nino and human-caused warming are driving the record high temperatures.
Sources
Every paragraph above points to the numbered items it rests on. Read the originals here.
- [1]State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on recordCarbon Brief, 15h ago (the report this story comes from)
Background
- [2]U.S. state on Wikipedia
Our newsroom writes these reports with the help of software, from the 2 sources listed and nothing else, and checks them against those sources. Facts can still be wrong or move on; the originals are the record. Spotted a mistake? Write to daniel@monsterkong.com.
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